Tulane’s carries with Maurice Turner and without Maurice Turner
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulane was 0.4 carries over with Maurice Turner and 7.2 carries under without Maurice Turner in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 33.7 and 24.0, a difference of 9.7. All 4 night games were with Maurice Turner. All 4 nonconference games were with Maurice Turner. All 4 first-half games were with Maurice Turner.
Maurice Turner, running back: 341 rushing yards, 43 carries and 6 receptions in 6 games this season, 21% of Tulane’s carries in those games.
2 games without Maurice Turner is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +7.6 difference in carries over expected with Maurice Turner vs without Maurice Turner is about what you’d expect.
A +9.7 difference in carries with Maurice Turner vs without Maurice Turner is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 26 | 32.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 26 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 33 | 31.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 46 | 39.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Army | L | 26 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 37 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 22 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 34 | 32.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.