Texas’ third-down conversion rate with Hollywood Smothers and without Hollywood Smothers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 4.1 percentage points over with Hollywood Smothers and 15.2 percentage points under without Hollywood Smothers in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 42.5% and 24.0%, a difference of 18.5%. All 5 unranked opponents were with Hollywood Smothers. All 3 nonconference games were with Hollywood Smothers.
Hollywood Smothers, running back: 283 rushing yards, 69 carries and 11 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Hollywood Smothers is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +19.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Hollywood Smothers vs without Hollywood Smothers is about what you’d expect.
A +18.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Hollywood Smothers vs without Hollywood Smothers is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 73.3% | 35.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 56.3% | 38.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTSA | W | 41.2% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 25.0% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | L | 21.4% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 20.0% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 23.1% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 42.9% | 41.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.