Texas’ points of margin with Hollywood Smothers and without Hollywood Smothers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 2.9 points over with Hollywood Smothers and 3.2 points over without Hollywood Smothers over its last 25 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 16.5 and 5.0, a difference of 11.5. Expected was 11.8 points higher with Hollywood Smothers than without Hollywood Smothers. All 5 unranked opponents were with Hollywood Smothers. All 3 nonconference games were with Hollywood Smothers.
Hollywood Smothers, running back: 283 rushing yards, 69 carries and 11 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Hollywood Smothers is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −0.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Hollywood Smothers vs without Hollywood Smothers is about what you’d expect.
A +11.5 difference in points of margin with Hollywood Smothers vs without Hollywood Smothers is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | -3 | 4.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Clemson | W | 14 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | W | 8 | 8.4 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | -14 | -3.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @Ohio State | L | -7 | -18.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 31 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 17 | 39.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 55 | 39.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida | L | -8 | 8.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | W | 17 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 3 | 9.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 7 | 9.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Georgia | L | -25 | -4.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 15 | 11.2 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | W | 10 | -2.5 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Michigan (neutral) | W | 14 | -1.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 52 | 15.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOhio State | W | 1 | 6.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTSA | W | 24 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 3 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsOklahoma (neutral) | L | -3 | 15.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida | L | -3 | 12.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 7 | 2.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMississippi State | W | 28 | 9.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Hollywood Smothers nor without Hollywood Smothers: Hollywood Smothers had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.