Texas’ points of margin with Colin Simmons and since Colin Simmons’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 0.1 points over with Colin Simmons and 11.2 points over since Colin Simmons’ last game over its last 25 games, 23 games against 2. The plain averages are 9.2 and 17.5, a difference of 8.3. All 6 away games were with Colin Simmons. All 6 neutral-site games were with Colin Simmons. All 18 day games were with Colin Simmons.
Colin Simmons, defender: 22 of those 25 games.
2 games since Colin Simmons’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −11.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Colin Simmons vs since Colin Simmons’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A −8.3 difference in points of margin with Colin Simmons vs since Colin Simmons’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | -3 | 4.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Clemson | W | 14 | 12.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | W | 8 | 8.4 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | -14 | -3.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @Ohio State | L | -7 | -18.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 31 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 17 | 39.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 55 | 39.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida | L | -8 | 8.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | W | 17 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 3 | 9.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 7 | 9.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Georgia | L | -25 | -4.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 15 | 11.2 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | W | 10 | -2.5 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Michigan (neutral) | W | 14 | -1.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 52 | 15.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOhio State | W | 1 | 6.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTSA | W | 24 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 3 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsOklahoma (neutral) | L | -3 | 15.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida | L | -3 | 12.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 7 | 2.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMississippi State | W | 28 | 9.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.