Texas’ points of margin with Colin Simmons and since Colin Simmons’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 0.2 points over with Colin Simmons and 11.2 points over since Colin Simmons’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 12.3 and 17.5, a difference of 5.2. Expected was 5.8 points higher with Colin Simmons than since Colin Simmons’ last game. All 5 day games were with Colin Simmons. All 5 games while in the top 5 were with Colin Simmons. All 3 nonconference games were with Colin Simmons.
Colin Simmons, defender: 6 games this season.
2 games since Colin Simmons’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −11.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Colin Simmons vs since Colin Simmons’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A −5.2 difference in points of margin with Colin Simmons vs since Colin Simmons’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 52 | 15.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 1 | 6.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTSA | W | 24 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 3 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | L | -3 | 15.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida | L | -3 | 12.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 7 | 2.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 28 | 9.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.