Texas’ carries with Hollywood Smothers and without Hollywood Smothers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 0.5 carries over with Hollywood Smothers and 1.1 carries over without Hollywood Smothers in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.3 and 37.5, a difference of 1.2. All 5 unranked opponents were with Hollywood Smothers. All 3 nonconference games were with Hollywood Smothers.
Hollywood Smothers, running back: 283 rushing yards, 69 carries and 11 receptions in 6 games this season, 32% of Texas’s carries in those games.
2 games without Hollywood Smothers is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −0.6 difference in carries over expected with Hollywood Smothers vs without Hollywood Smothers is about what you’d expect.
A −1.2 difference in carries with Hollywood Smothers vs without Hollywood Smothers is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 36 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Ohio State | W | 40 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTSA | W | 48 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 35 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | L | 32 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 30 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 40 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 32 | 36.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.