Putting Up Numbers· college football

Texas Tech’s total yards with Malcolm Simmons and since Malcolm Simmons’ last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 1.5 yards over with Malcolm Simmons and 93.2 yards over since Malcolm Simmons’ last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 419.7 and 476.0, a difference of 56.3. All 3 away games were with Malcolm Simmons. All 6 unranked opponents were with Malcolm Simmons. All 3 nonconference games were with Malcolm Simmons.

Malcolm Simmons, receiver: 91 receiving yards, 2 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 5 of those 25 games.

One game since Malcolm Simmons’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Malcolm Simmonssince Malcolm Simmons’ last game
Texas Tech’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Malcolm Simmons or since Malcolm Simmons’ last game
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Nov 23, 2024@Oklahoma StateW541513.4
Nov 30, 2024vsWest VirginiaW568416.9
Dec 27, 2024vsArkansas (neutral)L497418.4
Aug 30, 2025vsAArkansas-Pine BluffW610—
Sep 6, 2025vsKent StateW604539.5
Sep 13, 2025vsOregon StateW601450.6
Sep 20, 2025@UtahW484417.4
Oct 4, 2025@HoustonW552415.5
Oct 11, 2025vsKansasW505463.4
Oct 18, 2025@Arizona StateL276410.0
Oct 25, 2025vsOklahoma StateW374485.9
Nov 1, 2025@Kansas StateW438438.4
Nov 8, 2025vsBYUW370414.4
Nov 15, 2025vsUCFW501414.1
Nov 29, 2025@West VirginiaW577449.3
Dec 6, 2025vsBYU (neutral)W377406.4
Jan 1, 2026vsOregon (neutral)L215367.1
Sep 5, 2026vsAAbilene ChristianW471—
Sep 12, 2026@Oregon StateW352426.5
Sep 18, 2026vsHoustonW428384.4
Sep 26, 2026vsSam HoustonW470425.5
Oct 3, 2026@ColoradoW315374.6
Oct 17, 2026vsArizona StateW502372.1
Oct 24, 2026@CincinnatiL400475.2
Oct 31, 2026vsArizonaW476382.8

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Malcolm Simmons nor since Malcolm Simmons’ last game: Malcolm Simmons had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.