Texas Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Thomas Castellanos and without Thomas Castellanos
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 3.2 percentage points under with Thomas Castellanos and 0.1 percentage points over without Thomas Castellanos over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 37.5% and 39.2%, a difference of 1.7%. Expected was 2.1 percentage points higher with Thomas Castellanos than without Thomas Castellanos. All 3 away games were without Thomas Castellanos. All 6 unranked opponents were without Thomas Castellanos. All 3 nonconference games were without Thomas Castellanos.
Thomas Castellanos, quarterback: 189 passing yards, 29 pass attempts and 14 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
One game with Thomas Castellanos is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 63.6% | 44.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs West Virginia | W | 75.0% | 44.0% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Arkansas (neutral) | L | 41.7% | 41.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 46.2% | 56.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 60.0% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Utah | W | 52.9% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Houston | W | 50.0% | 45.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 42.9% | 49.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | 37.5% | 44.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsOklahoma State | W | 56.3% | 48.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Kansas State | W | 41.2% | 44.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs BYU | W | 38.9% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 66.7% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @West Virginia | W | 66.7% | 42.2% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsBYU (neutral) | W | 42.1% | 41.1% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Oregon (neutral) | L | 37.5% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Oregon State | W | 47.1% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsHouston | W | 60.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 44.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado | W | 25.0% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 20.0% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 37.5% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Thomas Castellanos nor without Thomas Castellanos: Thomas Castellanos had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.