Texas Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Thomas Castellanos and without Thomas Castellanos
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 3.2 percentage points under with Thomas Castellanos and 0.1 percentage points over without Thomas Castellanos in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 37.5% and 39.2%, a difference of 1.7%. Expected was 2.1 percentage points higher with Thomas Castellanos than without Thomas Castellanos. All 3 away games were without Thomas Castellanos. All 6 unranked opponents were without Thomas Castellanos. All 3 nonconference games were without Thomas Castellanos.
Thomas Castellanos, quarterback: 189 passing yards, 29 pass attempts and 14 completions in 5 games this season.
One game with Thomas Castellanos is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Thomas Castellanos
−3.2%
without Thomas Castellanos
+0.1%
-20%0%20%
plain
37.5%
39.2%
20%30%40%50%60%
The games
with Thomas Castellanoswithout Thomas Castellanos
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Oregon State | W | 47.1% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 60.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 44.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado | W | 25.0% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 20.0% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 37.5% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.