Texas Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Malcolm Simmons and since Malcolm Simmons’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 0.1 percentage points over with Malcolm Simmons and 3.2 percentage points under since Malcolm Simmons’ last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 39.2% and 37.5%, a difference of 1.7%. Expected was 2.1 percentage points lower with Malcolm Simmons than since Malcolm Simmons’ last game. All 3 away games were with Malcolm Simmons. All 6 unranked opponents were with Malcolm Simmons. All 3 nonconference games were with Malcolm Simmons.
Malcolm Simmons, receiver: 91 receiving yards, 2 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 5 of those 25 games.
One game since Malcolm Simmons’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 63.6% | 44.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs West Virginia | W | 75.0% | 44.0% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Arkansas (neutral) | L | 41.7% | 41.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 46.2% | 56.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 60.0% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Utah | W | 52.9% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Houston | W | 50.0% | 45.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 42.9% | 49.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | 37.5% | 44.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsOklahoma State | W | 56.3% | 48.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Kansas State | W | 41.2% | 44.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs BYU | W | 38.9% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 66.7% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @West Virginia | W | 66.7% | 42.2% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsBYU (neutral) | W | 42.1% | 41.1% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Oregon (neutral) | L | 37.5% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Oregon State | W | 47.1% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsHouston | W | 60.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 44.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado | W | 25.0% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 20.0% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 37.5% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Malcolm Simmons nor since Malcolm Simmons’ last game: Malcolm Simmons had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.