Texas Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Cameron Dickey and without Cameron Dickey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 4.5 percentage points over with Cameron Dickey and 12.4 percentage points under without Cameron Dickey in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 42.6% and 28.2%, a difference of 14.4%. Both ranked opponents were with Cameron Dickey. All 3 nonconference games were with Cameron Dickey. All 4 first-half games were with Cameron Dickey.
Cameron Dickey, running back: 276 rushing yards, 67 carries and 6 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Cameron Dickey is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +16.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Cameron Dickey vs without Cameron Dickey is about what you’d expect.
A +14.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Cameron Dickey vs without Cameron Dickey is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Oregon State | W | 47.1% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 60.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 44.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado | W | 25.0% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 20.0% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 37.5% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.