Texas Tech’s points with Thomas Castellanos and without Thomas Castellanos
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 5.3 points over with Thomas Castellanos and 3.0 points over without Thomas Castellanos in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 34.0 and 35.9, a difference of 1.9. Expected was 4.7 points lower with Thomas Castellanos than without Thomas Castellanos. All 3 away games were without Thomas Castellanos. All 6 unranked opponents were without Thomas Castellanos. All 3 nonconference games were without Thomas Castellanos.
Thomas Castellanos, quarterback: 189 passing yards, 29 pass attempts and 14 completions in 5 games this season.
One game with Thomas Castellanos is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Thomas Castellanos
+5.3
without Thomas Castellanos
+3.0
-10010
plain
34.0
35.9
304050
The games
with Thomas Castellanoswithout Thomas Castellanos
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Oregon State | W | 35 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 28 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 49 | 37.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado | W | 29 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 53 | 34.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 24 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 34 | 28.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.