Texas Tech’s points of margin with Thomas Castellanos and without Thomas Castellanos
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 6.8 points over with Thomas Castellanos and 2.2 points over without Thomas Castellanos over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 8.0 and 15.4, a difference of 7.4. Expected was 10.8 points lower with Thomas Castellanos than without Thomas Castellanos. All 3 away games were without Thomas Castellanos. All 6 unranked opponents were without Thomas Castellanos. All 3 nonconference games were without Thomas Castellanos.
Thomas Castellanos, quarterback: 189 passing yards, 29 pass attempts and 14 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
One game with Thomas Castellanos is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Thomas Castellanos
+6.8
without Thomas Castellanos
+2.2
-200
plain
8.0
15.4
020
The games
with Thomas Castellanoswithout Thomas Castellanos
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 8 | 8.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs West Virginia | W | 37 | 3.9 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Arkansas (neutral) | L | -13 | 2.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 48 | 47.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 31 | 43.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Utah | W | 24 | -2.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Houston | W | 24 | 17.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 25 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | -4 | 20.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsOklahoma State | W | 42 | 42.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Kansas State | W | 23 | 13.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs BYU | W | 22 | 12.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 39 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @West Virginia | W | 49 | 23.7 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsBYU (neutral) | W | 27 | 8.5 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Oregon (neutral) | L | -23 | 3.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 23 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Oregon State | W | 11 | -0.1 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsHouston | W | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 35 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado | W | 22 | 8.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 28 | 12.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | -13 | 14.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 8 | 1.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Thomas Castellanos nor without Thomas Castellanos: Thomas Castellanos had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.