Putting Up Numbers· college football

Texas Tech’s penalty yards with Cameron Dickey and without Cameron Dickey

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 2.0 yards under with Cameron Dickey and 7.2 yards over without Cameron Dickey over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 53.9 and 59.3, a difference of 5.4. All 3 neutral-site games were with Cameron Dickey. All 4 night games were with Cameron Dickey. All 6 ranked opponents were with Cameron Dickey.

Cameron Dickey, running back: 1,474 rushing yards, 291 carries and 32 receptions in 21 of those 25 games.

penalty yards a game over expected

A −9.1 difference in penalty yards over expected with Cameron Dickey vs without Cameron Dickey is about what you’d expect.

A −5.4 difference in penalty yards with Cameron Dickey vs without Cameron Dickey is about what you’d expect.

The games

with Cameron Dickeywithout Cameron Dickey
Texas Tech’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Cameron Dickey or without Cameron Dickey
SideDateGameResultpenalty yardsExpected
Nov 23, 2024@Oklahoma StateW10348.8
Nov 30, 2024vsWest VirginiaW2058.2
Dec 27, 2024vsArkansas (neutral)L1556.9
Aug 30, 2025vsAArkansas-Pine BluffW60—
Sep 6, 2025vsKent StateW6051.6
Sep 13, 2025vsOregon StateW7558.5
Sep 20, 2025@UtahW12249.9
Oct 4, 2025@HoustonW6562.3
Oct 11, 2025vsKansasW7747.9
Oct 18, 2025@Arizona StateL3957.3
Oct 25, 2025vsOklahoma StateW955.8
Nov 1, 2025@Kansas StateW2150.2
Nov 8, 2025vsBYUW5050.7
Nov 15, 2025vsUCFW7649.7
Nov 29, 2025@West VirginiaW5458.9
Dec 6, 2025vsBYU (neutral)W3552.9
Jan 1, 2026vsOregon (neutral)L3654.0
Sep 5, 2026vsAAbilene ChristianW60—
Sep 12, 2026@Oregon StateW7060.3
Sep 18, 2026vsHoustonW3559.4
Sep 26, 2026vsSam HoustonW4758.0
Oct 3, 2026@ColoradoW5158.4
Oct 17, 2026vsArizona StateW2948.9
Oct 24, 2026@CincinnatiL8552.5
Oct 31, 2026vsArizonaW7455.6

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Abilene Christian have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.