Putting Up Numbers· college football

Texas Tech’s pass attempts with Malcolm Simmons and since Malcolm Simmons’ last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 0.5 pass attempts over with Malcolm Simmons and 7.2 pass attempts under since Malcolm Simmons’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.1 and 25.0, a difference of 5.1. All 3 away games were with Malcolm Simmons. All 6 unranked opponents were with Malcolm Simmons. All 3 nonconference games were with Malcolm Simmons.

Malcolm Simmons, receiver: 91 receiving yards, 2 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 5 games this season.

One game since Malcolm Simmons’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

pass attempts a game over expected

The games

with Malcolm Simmonssince Malcolm Simmons’ last game
Texas Tech’s games, 2026, each marked with Malcolm Simmons or since Malcolm Simmons’ last game
SideDateGameResultpass attemptsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsAAbilene ChristianW34—
Sep 12, 2026@Oregon StateW2829.7
Sep 18, 2026vsHoustonW2828.7
Sep 26, 2026vsSam HoustonW3123.9
Oct 3, 2026@ColoradoW2627.9
Oct 17, 2026vsArizona StateW2731.0
Oct 24, 2026@CincinnatiL3732.9
Oct 31, 2026vsArizonaW2532.2

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.