Texas Tech’s carries with Cameron Dickey and without Cameron Dickey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas Tech was 1.4 carries over with Cameron Dickey and 1.7 carries over without Cameron Dickey in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 39.2 and 38.0, a difference of 1.2. Expected was 1.5 carries higher with Cameron Dickey than without Cameron Dickey. Both ranked opponents were with Cameron Dickey. All 3 nonconference games were with Cameron Dickey. All 4 first-half games were with Cameron Dickey.
Cameron Dickey, running back: 276 rushing yards, 67 carries and 6 receptions in 6 games this season, 29% of Texas Tech’s carries in those games.
2 games without Cameron Dickey is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −0.3 difference in carries over expected with Cameron Dickey vs without Cameron Dickey is about what you’d expect.
A +1.2 difference in carries with Cameron Dickey vs without Cameron Dickey is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Oregon State | W | 47 | 35.6 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Houston | W | 31 | 34.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 35 | 43.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado | W | 37 | 39.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 37 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 39 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 46 | 36.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Abilene Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.