Texas A&M’s third-down conversion rate with Jamarion Morrow and without Jamarion Morrow
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 1.7 percentage points under with Jamarion Morrow and 5.7 percentage points over without Jamarion Morrow over its last 25 games, 14 games against 5. The plain averages are 40.5% and 43.3%, a difference of 2.8%. All 3 top-10 opponents were without Jamarion Morrow. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jamarion Morrow. All 7 games while in the top 5 were with Jamarion Morrow.
Jamarion Morrow, running back: 328 rushing yards, 83 carries and 14 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −7.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jamarion Morrow vs without Jamarion Morrow is about what you’d expect.
A −2.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jamarion Morrow vs without Jamarion Morrow is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | W | 61.5% | 48.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 52.6% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 36.4% | 38.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs USC (neutral) | L | 46.7% | 36.9% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 27.3% | 41.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 38.5% | 42.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | W | 36.4% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAuburn | W | 21.4% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 46.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 52.9% | 43.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 45.5% | 44.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ LSU | W | 70.0% | 34.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 50.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 18.2% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 46.7% | — | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Texas | L | 28.6% | 37.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 44.4% | 33.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 50.0% | 44.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 25.0% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 52.9% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @LSU | L | 26.7% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArkansas | W | 56.3% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Missouri | L | 27.8% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 63.6% | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 36.4% | 33.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Samford, The Citadel have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 21 games; in the other 15 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Jamarion Morrow nor without Jamarion Morrow: Jamarion Morrow had no game for the team that season, and sit out.