Texas A&M’s third-down conversion rate with Jamarion Morrow and without Jamarion Morrow
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 4.3 percentage points under with Jamarion Morrow and 5.9 percentage points over without Jamarion Morrow in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 40.6% and 45.3%, a difference of 4.7%. All 3 nonconference games were with Jamarion Morrow.
Jamarion Morrow, running back: 146 rushing yards, 40 carries and 8 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Jamarion Morrow is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −10.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jamarion Morrow vs without Jamarion Morrow is about what you’d expect.
A −4.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jamarion Morrow vs without Jamarion Morrow is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 50.0% | 44.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 25.0% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 52.9% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 26.7% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 56.3% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 27.8% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 63.6% | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 36.4% | 33.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 2 of these 8 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.