Texas A&M’s third-down conversion rate with Carsyn Baker and without Carsyn Baker
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 1.9 percentage points over with Carsyn Baker and 4.4 percentage points under without Carsyn Baker over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 45.7% and 32.1%, a difference of 13.7%. All 5 home games were with Carsyn Baker. All 3 night games were with Carsyn Baker. All 5 unranked opponents were with Carsyn Baker.
Carsyn Baker, running back: 155 rushing yards, 38 carries and 1 reception in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Carsyn Baker is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Carsyn Baker vs without Carsyn Baker is about what you’d expect.
A +13.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Carsyn Baker vs without Carsyn Baker is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | W | 61.5% | 48.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 52.6% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 36.4% | 38.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs USC (neutral) | L | 46.7% | 36.9% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 27.3% | 41.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 38.5% | 42.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | W | 36.4% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAuburn | W | 21.4% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 46.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 52.9% | 43.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 45.5% | 44.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ LSU | W | 70.0% | 34.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 50.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 18.2% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 46.7% | — | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Texas | L | 28.6% | 37.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 44.4% | 33.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 50.0% | 44.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 25.0% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 52.9% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @LSU | L | 26.7% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArkansas | W | 56.3% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Missouri | L | 27.8% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 63.6% | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 36.4% | 33.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 2 of these 8 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Carsyn Baker nor without Carsyn Baker: Carsyn Baker had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.