Texas A&M’s points of margin with Carsyn Baker and without Carsyn Baker
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 4.3 points over with Carsyn Baker and 7.0 points under without Carsyn Baker in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 17.8 and -16.0, a difference of 33.8. All 5 home games were with Carsyn Baker. All 3 night games were with Carsyn Baker. All 5 unranked opponents were with Carsyn Baker.
Carsyn Baker, running back: 155 rushing yards, 38 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
2 games without Carsyn Baker is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +11.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Carsyn Baker vs without Carsyn Baker is about what you’d expect.
A +33.8 difference in points of margin with Carsyn Baker vs without Carsyn Baker is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 50 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 28 | 14.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | -10 | 4.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ LSU | L | -29 | -13.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 27 | 10.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | -21 | -2.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 41 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | -11 | -16.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 2 of these 8 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.