Texas A&M’s carries with Jamarion Morrow and without Jamarion Morrow
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 0.1 carries under with Jamarion Morrow and 2.2 carries over without Jamarion Morrow over its last 25 games, 14 games against 5. The plain averages are 37.3 and 36.8, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 2.2 carries higher with Jamarion Morrow than without Jamarion Morrow. All 3 top-10 opponents were without Jamarion Morrow. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jamarion Morrow. All 7 games while in the top 5 were with Jamarion Morrow.
Jamarion Morrow, running back: 328 rushing yards, 83 carries and 14 receptions in 16 of those 25 games, 14% of Texas A&M’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A −2.3 difference in carries over expected with Jamarion Morrow vs without Jamarion Morrow is about what you’d expect.
A +0.5 difference in carries with Jamarion Morrow vs without Jamarion Morrow is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | W | 34 | 44.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 52 | 37.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 34 | 38.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs USC (neutral) | L | 30 | 36.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 22 | 36.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 42 | 38.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | W | 32 | 36.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAuburn | W | 45 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 51 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 42 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 34 | 39.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ LSU | W | 37 | 35.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 39 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 27 | 39.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 43 | — | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Texas | L | 33 | 36.1 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 35 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 47 | 40.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 33 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 35 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @LSU | L | 33 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArkansas | W | 49 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Missouri | L | 23 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 40 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 39 | 34.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Samford, The Citadel have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 21 games; in the other 15 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Jamarion Morrow nor without Jamarion Morrow: Jamarion Morrow had no game for the team that season, and sit out.