Texas A&M’s carries with Jamarion Morrow and without Jamarion Morrow
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 1.8 carries under with Jamarion Morrow and 4.1 carries over without Jamarion Morrow in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 36.4 and 39.0, a difference of 2.6. All 3 nonconference games were with Jamarion Morrow.
Jamarion Morrow, running back: 146 rushing yards, 40 carries and 8 receptions in 5 games this season, 22% of Texas A&M’s carries in those games.
3 games without Jamarion Morrow is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −5.9 difference in carries over expected with Jamarion Morrow vs without Jamarion Morrow is about what you’d expect.
A −2.6 difference in carries with Jamarion Morrow vs without Jamarion Morrow is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 47 | 40.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 33 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 35 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 33 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 49 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 23 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 40 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 39 | 34.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 2 of these 8 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.