Texas A&M’s carries with Carsyn Baker and without Carsyn Baker
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas A&M was 2.9 carries over with Carsyn Baker and 4.7 carries under without Carsyn Baker over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 39.5 and 31.0, a difference of 8.5. All 5 home games were with Carsyn Baker. All 3 night games were with Carsyn Baker. All 5 unranked opponents were with Carsyn Baker.
Carsyn Baker, running back: 155 rushing yards, 38 carries and 1 reception in 6 of those 25 games, 16% of Texas A&M’s carries in those games.
2 games without Carsyn Baker is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +7.6 difference in carries over expected with Carsyn Baker vs without Carsyn Baker is about what you’d expect.
A +8.5 difference in carries with Carsyn Baker vs without Carsyn Baker is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | W | 34 | 44.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Auburn | L | 52 | 37.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Texas | L | 34 | 38.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs USC (neutral) | L | 30 | 36.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 22 | 36.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 42 | 38.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | W | 32 | 36.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAuburn | W | 45 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 51 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 42 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 34 | 39.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ LSU | W | 37 | 35.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 39 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 27 | 39.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 43 | — | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Texas | L | 33 | 36.1 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 35 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 47 | 40.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 33 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 35 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @LSU | L | 33 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArkansas | W | 49 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Missouri | L | 23 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs The Citadel | W | 40 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 39 | 34.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 2 of these 8 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Carsyn Baker nor without Carsyn Baker: Carsyn Baker had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.