Putting Up Numbers· college football

Temple’s total yards with Ajani Sheppard and without Ajani Sheppard

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 0.5 yards over with Ajani Sheppard and 21.8 yards under without Ajani Sheppard over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 381.4 and 285.0, a difference of 96.4. All 3 away games were with Ajani Sheppard. All 7 unranked opponents were with Ajani Sheppard. All 4 conference games were with Ajani Sheppard.

Ajani Sheppard, quarterback: 1,245 passing yards, 140 pass attempts and 85 completions in 8 of those 25 games.

One game without Ajani Sheppard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Ajani Sheppardwithout Ajani Sheppard
Temple’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Ajani Sheppard or without Ajani Sheppard
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Oct 26, 2024@East CarolinaL405339.8
Nov 9, 2024@TulaneL159267.6
Nov 16, 2024vsFlorida AtlanticW356376.9
Nov 22, 2024@UTSAL289318.4
Nov 30, 2024vsNorth TexasL346391.3
Aug 30, 2025@UMassW468411.3
Sep 6, 2025vsHHowardW562—
Sep 13, 2025vsOklahomaL105253.8
Sep 20, 2025@Georgia TechL328341.5
Oct 4, 2025vsUTSAW312331.8
Oct 11, 2025vsNavyL520279.9
Oct 18, 2025@CharlotteW386402.4
Oct 25, 2025@TulsaW447349.3
Nov 1, 2025vsEast CarolinaL233351.1
Nov 8, 2025@ArmyL268266.8
Nov 22, 2025vsTulaneL204339.7
Nov 28, 2025@North TexasL316375.0
Sep 5, 2026vsRRhode IslandW373—
Sep 12, 2026vsPenn StateL285306.8
Sep 19, 2026@ToledoL425363.8
Sep 25, 2026vsArmyL459401.1
Oct 3, 2026@South FloridaW274352.7
Oct 10, 2026vsUConnL435405.9
Oct 17, 2026vsCharlotteL455402.6
Oct 31, 2026@East CarolinaL249368.1

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Rhode Island has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Ajani Sheppard nor without Ajani Sheppard: Ajani Sheppard had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.