Temple’s third-down conversion rate with Jaxon Smolik and without Jaxon Smolik
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 1.7 percentage points over with Jaxon Smolik and 0.3 percentage points under without Jaxon Smolik over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 33.3% and 38.0%, a difference of 4.7%. Expected was 8.8 percentage points lower with Jaxon Smolik than without Jaxon Smolik. All 3 away games were without Jaxon Smolik. All 7 unranked opponents were without Jaxon Smolik. All 4 conference games were without Jaxon Smolik.
Jaxon Smolik, quarterback: 129 passing yards, 27 pass attempts and 16 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
One game with Jaxon Smolik is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jaxon Smolik
+1.7%
without Jaxon Smolik
−0.3%
-20%0%20%
plain
33.3%
38.0%
20%40%60%
The games
with Jaxon Smolikwithout Jaxon Smolik
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ East Carolina | L | 43.8% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tulane | L | 7.7% | 32.5% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 40.0% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ UTSA | L | 13.3% | 31.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs North Texas | L | 6.3% | 40.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 75.0% | 41.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsHHoward | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 18.8% | 30.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 31.6% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsUTSA | W | 40.0% | 32.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 50.0% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 22.2% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 25.0% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | L | 25.0% | 33.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Army | L | 25.0% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsTulane | L | 33.3% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @North Texas | L | 40.0% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsRRhode Island | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Penn State | L | 33.3% | 31.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 60.0% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsArmy | L | 33.3% | 49.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Florida | W | 41.7% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 41.7% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsCharlotte | L | 50.0% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @East Carolina | L | 14.3% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Rhode Island has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jaxon Smolik nor without Jaxon Smolik: Jaxon Smolik had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.