Temple’s third-down conversion rate with Jaxon Smolik and without Jaxon Smolik
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 1.7 percentage points over with Jaxon Smolik and 0.3 percentage points under without Jaxon Smolik in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 33.3% and 38.0%, a difference of 4.7%. Expected was 8.8 percentage points lower with Jaxon Smolik than without Jaxon Smolik. All 3 away games were without Jaxon Smolik. All 7 unranked opponents were without Jaxon Smolik. All 4 conference games were without Jaxon Smolik.
Jaxon Smolik, quarterback: 129 passing yards, 27 pass attempts and 16 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Jaxon Smolik is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jaxon Smolik
+1.7%
without Jaxon Smolik
−0.3%
-20%0%20%
plain
33.3%
38.0%
20%40%60%
The games
with Jaxon Smolikwithout Jaxon Smolik
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsRRhode Island | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Penn State | L | 33.3% | 31.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 60.0% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Army | L | 33.3% | 49.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Florida | W | 41.7% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 41.7% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Charlotte | L | 50.0% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 14.3% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Rhode Island has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.