Temple’s third-down conversion rate with Ajani Sheppard and without Ajani Sheppard
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 0.3 percentage points under with Ajani Sheppard and 1.7 percentage points over without Ajani Sheppard over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.0% and 33.3%, a difference of 4.7%. Expected was 8.8 percentage points higher with Ajani Sheppard than without Ajani Sheppard. All 3 away games were with Ajani Sheppard. All 7 unranked opponents were with Ajani Sheppard. All 4 conference games were with Ajani Sheppard.
Ajani Sheppard, quarterback: 1,245 passing yards, 140 pass attempts and 85 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
One game without Ajani Sheppard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Ajani Sheppard
−0.3%
without Ajani Sheppard
+1.7%
-20%0%20%
plain
38.0%
33.3%
20%40%60%
The games
with Ajani Sheppardwithout Ajani Sheppard
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ East Carolina | L | 43.8% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tulane | L | 7.7% | 32.5% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 40.0% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ UTSA | L | 13.3% | 31.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs North Texas | L | 6.3% | 40.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 75.0% | 41.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsHHoward | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 18.8% | 30.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 31.6% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsUTSA | W | 40.0% | 32.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 50.0% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 22.2% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 25.0% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | L | 25.0% | 33.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Army | L | 25.0% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsTulane | L | 33.3% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @North Texas | L | 40.0% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsRRhode Island | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Penn State | L | 33.3% | 31.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 60.0% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsArmy | L | 33.3% | 49.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Florida | W | 41.7% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 41.7% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsCharlotte | L | 50.0% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @East Carolina | L | 14.3% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Rhode Island has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Ajani Sheppard nor without Ajani Sheppard: Ajani Sheppard had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.