Temple’s points of margin with Jaxon Smolik and without Jaxon Smolik
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 1.7 points under with Jaxon Smolik and 1.4 points under without Jaxon Smolik in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are -18.0 and -0.9, a difference of 17.1. All 3 away games were without Jaxon Smolik. All 7 unranked opponents were without Jaxon Smolik. All 4 conference games were without Jaxon Smolik.
Jaxon Smolik, quarterback: 129 passing yards, 27 pass attempts and 16 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Jaxon Smolik is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jaxon Smolik
−1.7
without Jaxon Smolik
−1.4
-200
plain
-18.0
-0.9
020
The games
with Jaxon Smolikwithout Jaxon Smolik
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsRRhode Island | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Penn State | L | -18 | -16.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | -1 | -11.5 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Army | L | -4 | -6.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Florida | W | 4 | -15.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UConn | L | -14 | 2.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Charlotte | L | -7 | 15.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | -8 | -5.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Rhode Island has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.