Temple’s points of margin with Ajani Sheppard and without Ajani Sheppard
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 1.4 points under with Ajani Sheppard and 1.7 points under without Ajani Sheppard over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -0.9 and -18.0, a difference of 17.1. All 3 away games were with Ajani Sheppard. All 7 unranked opponents were with Ajani Sheppard. All 4 conference games were with Ajani Sheppard.
Ajani Sheppard, quarterback: 1,245 passing yards, 140 pass attempts and 85 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
One game without Ajani Sheppard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Ajani Sheppard
−1.4
without Ajani Sheppard
−1.7
-200
plain
-0.9
-18.0
020
The games
with Ajani Sheppardwithout Ajani Sheppard
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ East Carolina | L | -22 | -13.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tulane | L | -46 | -27.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 3 | -1.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ UTSA | L | -24 | -12.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs North Texas | L | -7 | -9.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 32 | 21.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsHHoward | W | 48 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | -39 | -17.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | -21 | -16.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsUTSA | W | 6 | -9.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Navy | L | -1 | -6.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 35 | 6.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 1 | 3.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | L | -31 | -6.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Army | L | -1 | -11.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsTulane | L | -24 | -5.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @North Texas | L | -27 | -19.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsRRhode Island | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Penn State | L | -18 | -16.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | -1 | -11.5 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsArmy | L | -4 | -6.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Florida | W | 4 | -15.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UConn | L | -14 | 2.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsCharlotte | L | -7 | 15.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @East Carolina | L | -8 | -5.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Rhode Island has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Ajani Sheppard nor without Ajani Sheppard: Ajani Sheppard had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.