Temple’s points at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 7.0 points under at home and 4.5 points over away over its last 25 games, 11 games against 12. The plain averages are 22.5 and 27.7, a difference of 5.1. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Temple’s −11.5 at home vs away over expected ranks 134th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
points a game over expected
at home
−7.0
away
+4.5
020
A −11.5 difference in points over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
plain
22.5
27.7
2040
A −5.1 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ East Carolina | L | 34 | 19.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tulane | L | 6 | 14.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 18 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ UTSA | L | 27 | 22.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs North Texas | L | 17 | 28.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 42 | 38.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsHHoward | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 3 | 16.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 24 | 20.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsUTSA | W | 27 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 31 | 24.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 49 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 38 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | L | 14 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Army | L | 13 | 19.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsTulane | L | 13 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @North Texas | L | 25 | 28.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsRRhode Island | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Penn State | L | 9 | 18.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 48 | 19.3 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsArmy | L | 17 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Florida | W | 17 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 20 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsCharlotte | L | 31 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @East Carolina | L | 9 | 23.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Howard, Rhode Island have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.