Temple’s points allowed with Jaxon Smolik and without Jaxon Smolik
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 4.8 points under with Jaxon Smolik and 1.7 points over without Jaxon Smolik over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 27.0 and 26.6, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 4.8 points higher with Jaxon Smolik than without Jaxon Smolik. All 3 away games were without Jaxon Smolik. All 7 unranked opponents were without Jaxon Smolik. All 4 conference games were without Jaxon Smolik.
Jaxon Smolik, quarterback: 129 passing yards, 27 pass attempts and 16 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
One game with Jaxon Smolik is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Jaxon Smolik
−4.8
without Jaxon Smolik
+1.7
-1001020
plain
27.0
26.6
203040
The games
with Jaxon Smolikwithout Jaxon Smolik
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ East Carolina | L | 56 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tulane | L | 52 | 38.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 15 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ UTSA | L | 51 | 33.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs North Texas | L | 24 | 36.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 10 | 19.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsHHoward | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 42 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 45 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsUTSA | W | 21 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 32 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 14 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 37 | 25.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | L | 45 | 30.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Army | L | 14 | 29.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsTulane | L | 37 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @North Texas | L | 52 | 46.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsRRhode Island | W | 14 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Penn State | L | 27 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 49 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsArmy | L | 21 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ South Florida | W | 13 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UConn | L | 34 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsCharlotte | L | 38 | 17.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @East Carolina | L | 17 | 28.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Rhode Island has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jaxon Smolik nor without Jaxon Smolik: Jaxon Smolik had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.