Putting Up Numbers· college football

Temple’s passing yards with Ajani Sheppard and without Ajani Sheppard

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Temple was 15.8 yards under with Ajani Sheppard and 26.2 yards under without Ajani Sheppard in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 186.6 and 107.0, a difference of 79.6. All 3 away games were with Ajani Sheppard. All 7 unranked opponents were with Ajani Sheppard. All 4 conference games were with Ajani Sheppard.

Ajani Sheppard, quarterback: 1,245 passing yards, 140 pass attempts and 85 completions in 8 games this season, 88% of Temple’s passing yards in those games.

One game without Ajani Sheppard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

passing yards a game over expected

The games

with Ajani Sheppardwithout Ajani Sheppard
Temple’s games, 2026, each marked with Ajani Sheppard or without Ajani Sheppard
SideDateGameResultpassing yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsRRhode IslandW142—
Sep 12, 2026vsPenn StateL107133.2
Sep 19, 2026@ToledoL164221.9
Sep 25, 2026vsArmyL242206.6
Oct 3, 2026@South FloridaW92202.4
Oct 10, 2026vsUConnL289222.7
Oct 17, 2026vsCharlotteL249214.6
Oct 31, 2026@East CarolinaL128190.7

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Rhode Island has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.