TCU’s third-down conversion rate with Jon Denman and without Jon Denman
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, TCU was 2.3 percentage points over with Jon Denman and 4.8 percentage points over without Jon Denman over its last 25 games, 18 games against 1. The plain averages are 44.8% and 50.0%, a difference of 5.2%. All 8 away games were with Jon Denman. Both neutral-site games were with Jon Denman. All 7 night games were with Jon Denman.
Jon Denman, running back: 336 rushing yards, 97 carries and 5 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
One game without Jon Denman is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jon Denman
+2.3%
without Jon Denman
+4.8%
-20%0%
plain
44.8%
50.0%
20%40%60%80%
The games
with Jon Denmanwithout Jon Denman
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 60.0% | 44.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Arizona | W | 58.3% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Cincinnati | W | 33.3% | 41.8% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Louisiana (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 47.7% | |
| Sep 1, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 58.3% | 43.1% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs SMU | W | 52.9% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | 41.7% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Colorado | W | 46.7% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 46.2% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Baylor | W | 46.2% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ West Virginia | W | 37.5% | 42.1% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | 50.0% | 42.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ BYU | L | 10.0% | 40.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Houston | W | 45.5% | 42.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsCincinnati | W | 42.9% | 45.7% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs USC (neutral) | W | 53.3% | 40.9% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina (neutral) | L | 43.8% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Grambling State | W | 28.6% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 50.0% | 45.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 43.8% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBYU | L | 30.8% | 43.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Baylor | W | 43.8% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsWest Virginia | L | 57.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 35.7% | 39.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Abilene Christian, Grambling State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Jon Denman nor without Jon Denman: Jon Denman had no game for the team that season, and sit out.