TCU’s third-down conversion rate with Jon Denman and without Jon Denman
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, TCU was 2.3 percentage points over with Jon Denman and 4.8 percentage points over without Jon Denman in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 40.5% and 50.0%, a difference of 9.5%. Both away games were with Jon Denman. Both night games were with Jon Denman. All 5 conference games were with Jon Denman.
Jon Denman, running back: 158 rushing yards, 47 carries and 2 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Jon Denman is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jon Denman
+2.3%
without Jon Denman
+4.8%
-10%0%10%
plain
40.5%
50.0%
30%40%50%
The games
with Jon Denmanwithout Jon Denman
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs North Carolina (neutral) | L | 43.8% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Grambling State | W | 28.6% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 50.0% | 45.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 43.8% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 30.8% | 43.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Baylor | W | 43.8% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs West Virginia | L | 57.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 35.7% | 39.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Grambling State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.