TCU’s third-down conversion rate with Jeremy Payne and since Jeremy Payne’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, TCU was 0.9 percentage points over with Jeremy Payne and 7.1 percentage points over since Jeremy Payne’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 40.1% and 46.4%, a difference of 6.3%. Both away games were with Jeremy Payne. Both night games were with Jeremy Payne. All 3 nonconference games were with Jeremy Payne.
Jeremy Payne, running back: 429 rushing yards, 88 carries and 18 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Jeremy Payne’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jeremy Payne vs since Jeremy Payne’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jeremy Payne vs since Jeremy Payne’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs North Carolina (neutral) | L | 43.8% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Grambling State | W | 28.6% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 50.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 43.8% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 30.8% | 43.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Baylor | W | 43.8% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs West Virginia | L | 57.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 35.7% | 39.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Grambling State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.