TCU’s points of margin with Jeremy Payne and without Jeremy Payne
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, TCU was 4.3 points over with Jeremy Payne and 5.0 points under without Jeremy Payne over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 9.8 and 5.5, a difference of 4.3. Expected was 8.0 points lower with Jeremy Payne than without Jeremy Payne. All 3 neutral-site games were with Jeremy Payne. All 4 ranked opponents were with Jeremy Payne. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jeremy Payne.
Jeremy Payne, running back: 1,133 rushing yards, 216 carries and 42 receptions in 21 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +9.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Jeremy Payne vs without Jeremy Payne is about what you’d expect.
A +4.3 difference in points of margin with Jeremy Payne vs without Jeremy Payne is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 25 | 13.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Arizona | W | 21 | 14.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Cincinnati | W | 7 | -1.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Louisiana (neutral) | W | 31 | 7.0 | |
| Sep 1, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 34 | 9.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 21 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs SMU | W | 11 | -2.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | -3 | 0.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Colorado | W | 14 | 15.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | -13 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Baylor | W | 6 | 10.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ West Virginia | W | 6 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | -3 | 5.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ BYU | L | -31 | -5.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Houston | W | 3 | 1.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsCincinnati | W | 22 | 6.6 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs USC (neutral) | W | 3 | -11.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina (neutral) | L | -5 | -1.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Grambling State | W | 56 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 24 | 15.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UCF | L | -8 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBYU | L | -7 | -0.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Baylor | W | 11 | -16.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsWest Virginia | L | -4 | 12.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 6 | 3.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Abilene Christian, Grambling State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.