TCU’s points of margin in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through TCU’s game on Oct 3, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, TCU was 1.8 points under in a conference game and 13.5 points over in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 17 games against 6. The plain averages are 2.5 and 21.9, a difference of 19.3. All 3 neutral-site games were in a nonconference game. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game. All 3 games without Jeremy Payne were in a conference game.
TCU’s −15.3 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 133rd of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 3, 2026.
points of margin a game over expected
A −15.3 difference in points of margin over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −19.3 difference in points of margin in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Utah | W | 6 | 0.6 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Texas Tech | W | 1 | 4.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | -3 | -4.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 25 | 13.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Arizona | W | 21 | 14.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Cincinnati | W | 7 | -1.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Louisiana (neutral) | W | 31 | 7.0 | |
| Sep 1, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 34 | 9.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 21 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs SMU | W | 11 | -2.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | @ Arizona State | L | -3 | 0.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Colorado | W | 14 | 15.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | -13 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsBaylor | W | 6 | 10.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ West Virginia | W | 6 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | -3 | 5.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ BYU | L | -31 | -5.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Houston | W | 3 | 1.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsCincinnati | W | 22 | 6.6 | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs USC (neutral) | W | 3 | -11.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina (neutral) | L | -5 | -1.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Grambling State | W | 56 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 24 | 15.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UCF | L | -8 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBYU | L | -7 | -0.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Abilene Christian, Grambling State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 3.