TCU’s carries with Jon Denman and without Jon Denman
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, TCU was 2.1 carries under with Jon Denman and 4.5 carries over without Jon Denman in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.7 and 39.0, a difference of 7.3. Both away games were with Jon Denman. Both night games were with Jon Denman. All 5 conference games were with Jon Denman.
Jon Denman, running back: 158 rushing yards, 47 carries and 2 receptions in 7 games this season, 21% of TCU’s carries in those games.
One game without Jon Denman is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jon Denman
−2.1
without Jon Denman
+4.5
-505
plain
31.7
39.0
3035
The games
with Jon Denmanwithout Jon Denman
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs North Carolina (neutral) | L | 38 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Grambling State | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 39 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 27 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 30 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Baylor | W | 28 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs West Virginia | L | 35 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 28 | 35.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Grambling State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.