TCU’s carries with Jeremy Payne and since Jeremy Payne’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, TCU was 0.7 carries under with Jeremy Payne and 2.2 carries under since Jeremy Payne’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 33.0 and 31.5, a difference of 1.5. Both away games were with Jeremy Payne. Both night games were with Jeremy Payne. All 3 nonconference games were with Jeremy Payne.
Jeremy Payne, running back: 429 rushing yards, 88 carries and 18 receptions in 6 games this season, 44% of TCU’s carries in those games.
2 games since Jeremy Payne’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +1.5 difference in carries over expected with Jeremy Payne vs since Jeremy Payne’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.5 difference in carries with Jeremy Payne vs since Jeremy Payne’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs North Carolina (neutral) | L | 38 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Grambling State | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 39 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 27 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 30 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Baylor | W | 28 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs West Virginia | L | 35 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 28 | 35.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Grambling State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.