Putting Up Numbers· college football

Syracuse’s total yards with Amari Odom and without Amari Odom

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 52.2 yards over with Amari Odom and 10.3 yards over without Amari Odom over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 510.0 and 427.0, a difference of 83.0. All 4 home games were without Amari Odom. All 4 night games were without Amari Odom. All 6 conference games were without Amari Odom.

Amari Odom, quarterback: 391 passing yards, 47 pass attempts and 36 completions in 3 of those 25 games.

One game with Amari Odom is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Amari Odomwithout Amari Odom
Syracuse’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Amari Odom or without Amari Odom
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Nov 9, 2024@Boston CollegeL431452.2
Nov 16, 2024@CaliforniaW476406.9
Nov 23, 2024vsUConnW546451.1
Nov 30, 2024vsMiami (FL)W482411.9
Dec 27, 2024vsWashington State (neutral)W607487.0
Aug 30, 2025vsTennessee (neutral)L377339.7
Sep 6, 2025vsUConnW463407.2
Sep 12, 2025vsColgateW622—
Sep 20, 2025@ClemsonW435287.8
Sep 27, 2025vsDukeL314387.0
Oct 4, 2025@SMUL389324.4
Oct 18, 2025vsPittsburghL212305.1
Oct 25, 2025@Georgia TechL381340.2
Oct 31, 2025vsNorth CarolinaL154346.3
Nov 8, 2025@Miami (FL)L285208.2
Nov 22, 2025@Notre DameL207254.1
Nov 29, 2025vsBoston CollegeL254413.9
Sep 5, 2026vsNew HampshireW515—
Sep 12, 2026vsCaliforniaL439441.2
Sep 17, 2026@PittsburghL347385.7
Oct 3, 2026@UConnW510457.8
Oct 10, 2026@VirginiaL430364.8
Oct 17, 2026vsLouisvilleL462436.9
Oct 24, 2026@North CarolinaW458392.4
Oct 31, 2026vsSMUW338391.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Amari Odom nor without Amari Odom: Amari Odom had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.