Syracuse’s third-down conversion rate with Tylik Hill and without Tylik Hill
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 2.6 percentage points under with Tylik Hill and 1.8 percentage points under without Tylik Hill over its last 25 games, 13 games against 5. The plain averages are 38.2% and 35.6%, a difference of 2.6%. Both top-10 opponents were with Tylik Hill. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Tylik Hill. All 3 games after a bye were with Tylik Hill.
Tylik Hill, running back: 651 rushing yards, 123 carries and 2 receptions in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −0.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Tylik Hill vs without Tylik Hill is about what you’d expect.
A +2.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Tylik Hill vs without Tylik Hill is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | 41.7% | 45.0% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ California | W | 41.2% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UConn | W | 47.1% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 70.0% | 42.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Washington State (neutral) | W | 33.3% | 45.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | L | 35.7% | 37.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUConn | W | 33.3% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Colgate | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 20.0% | 31.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Duke | L | 35.7% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ SMU | L | 37.5% | 33.2% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 26.7% | 33.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 35.7% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | 25.0% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Miami (FL) | L | 40.0% | 27.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 38.9% | 29.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsBoston College | L | 28.6% | 40.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCalifornia | L | 41.2% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | L | 35.7% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UConn | W | 58.8% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 33.3% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 21.4% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @North Carolina | W | 42.1% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSMU | W | 25.0% | 36.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Colgate, New Hampshire have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Tylik Hill nor without Tylik Hill: Tylik Hill had no game for the team that season, and sit out.