Syracuse’s third-down conversion rate with Tylik Hill and without Tylik Hill
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 1.2 percentage points under with Tylik Hill and 2.4 percentage points under without Tylik Hill in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.2% and 35.7%, a difference of 5.5%. All 4 home games were with Tylik Hill. All 4 day games were with Tylik Hill. Both nonconference games were with Tylik Hill.
Tylik Hill, running back: 522 rushing yards, 99 carries and 1 reception in 7 games this season.
One game without Tylik Hill is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Tylik Hill
−1.2%
without Tylik Hill
−2.4%
-10%0%10%20%
plain
41.2%
35.7%
40%60%
The games
with Tylik Hillwithout Tylik Hill
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs California | L | 41.2% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 35.7% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 58.8% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 33.3% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 21.4% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 42.1% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 25.0% | 36.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.