Syracuse’s third-down conversion rate with Malachi Nelson and without Malachi Nelson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 9.3 percentage points under with Malachi Nelson and 1.7 percentage points over without Malachi Nelson in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 27.4% and 44.9%, a difference of 17.5%. All 4 day games were without Malachi Nelson. Both nonconference games were without Malachi Nelson. All 4 first-half games were without Malachi Nelson.
Malachi Nelson, quarterback: 532 passing yards, 70 pass attempts and 42 completions in 3 games this season.
2 games with Malachi Nelson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −11.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Malachi Nelson vs without Malachi Nelson is about what you’d expect.
A −17.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Malachi Nelson vs without Malachi Nelson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs California | L | 41.2% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 35.7% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 58.8% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 33.3% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 21.4% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 42.1% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 25.0% | 36.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.