Syracuse’s third-down conversion rate with Ahmad Miller and without Ahmad Miller
, ,
Syracuse averaged 36.8% third-down conversion rate with Ahmad Miller and 66.7% without Ahmad Miller in 2026, 7 games against 1, a difference of 29.9%. All 4 away games were with Ahmad Miller. All 4 night games were with Ahmad Miller. All 7 major-college opponents were with Ahmad Miller.
Ahmad Miller, running back: 418 rushing yards, 96 carries and 7 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Ahmad Miller is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game
with Ahmad Miller
36.8%
without Ahmad Miller
66.7%
40%60%
The games
with Ahmad Millerwithout Ahmad Miller
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs California | L | 41.2% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 35.7% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 58.8% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 33.3% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 21.4% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 42.1% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 25.0% | 36.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.