Syracuse’s rushing yards at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 48.7 yards under at home and 34.3 yards over away over its last 25 games, 10 games against 11. The plain averages are 123.8 and 142.7, a difference of 18.9. Expected was 47.4 yards higher at home than away. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Syracuse’s −83.1 at home vs away over expected ranks 136th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
rushing yards a game over expected
at home
−48.7
away
+34.3
-1000100
A −83.1 difference in rushing yards over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
123.8
142.7
100200
A −18.9 difference in rushing yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | 39 | 107.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ California | W | 153 | 80.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UConn | W | 76 | 142.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 102 | 101.7 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Washington State (neutral) | W | 154 | 138.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | L | 103 | 151.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUConn | W | 47 | 221.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Colgate | W | 175 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 156 | 90.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Duke | L | 85 | 147.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ SMU | L | 110 | 116.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 76 | 88.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 157 | 146.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | 115 | 140.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Miami (FL) | L | 161 | 43.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 112 | 74.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsBoston College | L | 189 | 181.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 240 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCalifornia | L | 120 | 205.0 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | L | 142 | 91.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UConn | W | 175 | 130.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 163 | 165.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 123 | 175.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @North Carolina | W | 202 | 145.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSMU | W | 138 | 153.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.8 in 2024, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Colgate, New Hampshire have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.