Syracuse’s points of margin with Steve Angeli and without Steve Angeli
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 7.0 points over with Steve Angeli and 7.5 points under without Steve Angeli over its last 25 games, 7 games against 11. The plain averages are 10.3 and -20.9, a difference of 31.2. Both top-10 opponents were without Steve Angeli. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Steve Angeli. All 3 games after a bye were without Steve Angeli.
Steve Angeli, quarterback: 2,504 passing yards, 328 pass attempts and 196 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +14.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Steve Angeli vs without Steve Angeli is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Steve Angeli and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A +31.2 difference in points of margin with Steve Angeli vs without Steve Angeli is rare: shuffle which games were with Steve Angeli and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | -6 | 0.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ California | W | 8 | 0.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UConn | W | 7 | 11.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 4 | -11.0 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Washington State (neutral) | W | 17 | 5.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | L | -19 | -21.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUConn | W | 7 | -3.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Colgate | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 13 | -25.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Duke | L | -35 | -10.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ SMU | L | -13 | -27.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | -17 | -16.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | -25 | -18.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | -17 | 3.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Miami (FL) | L | -28 | -38.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | -63 | -35.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsBoston College | L | -22 | 3.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCalifornia | L | -3 | 16.8 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | L | -14 | -8.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UConn | W | 1 | 3.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | -3 | -2.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | -8 | -8.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @North Carolina | W | 1 | -16.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSMU | W | 3 | -2.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Colgate, New Hampshire have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Steve Angeli nor without Steve Angeli: Steve Angeli had no game for the team that season, and sit out.