Syracuse’s points of margin with Malachi Nelson and without Malachi Nelson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 0.0 points over with Malachi Nelson and 0.9 points under without Malachi Nelson over its last 25 games, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are -5.5 and 8.5, a difference of 14.0. All 4 day games were without Malachi Nelson. Both nonconference games were without Malachi Nelson.
Malachi Nelson, quarterback: 532 passing yards, 70 pass attempts and 42 completions in 3 of those 25 games.
2 games with Malachi Nelson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +0.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Malachi Nelson vs without Malachi Nelson is about what you’d expect.
A −14.0 difference in points of margin with Malachi Nelson vs without Malachi Nelson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | -6 | 0.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ California | W | 8 | 0.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs UConn | W | 7 | 11.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 4 | -11.0 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Washington State (neutral) | W | 17 | 5.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Tennessee (neutral) | L | -19 | -21.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUConn | W | 7 | -3.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Colgate | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 13 | -25.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Duke | L | -35 | -10.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ SMU | L | -13 | -27.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | -17 | -16.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | L | -25 | -18.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | -17 | 3.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Miami (FL) | L | -28 | -38.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | -63 | -35.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsBoston College | L | -22 | 3.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCalifornia | L | -3 | 16.7 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | L | -14 | -8.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UConn | W | 1 | 3.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | -3 | -2.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | -8 | -8.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @North Carolina | W | 1 | -16.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSMU | W | 3 | -2.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Malachi Nelson nor without Malachi Nelson: Malachi Nelson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.