Syracuse’s points allowed with Steve Angeli and without Steve Angeli
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 2.7 points under with Steve Angeli and 6.4 points over without Steve Angeli in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 21.6 and 34.3, a difference of 12.7.
Steve Angeli, quarterback: 1,187 passing yards, 172 pass attempts and 98 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Steve Angeli is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −9.2 difference in points allowed over expected with Steve Angeli vs without Steve Angeli is unusual: shuffle which games were with Steve Angeli and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −12.7 difference in points allowed with Steve Angeli vs without Steve Angeli is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Steve Angeli and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs California | L | 21 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 27 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 41 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 28 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 34 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 30 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 27 | 28.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.