Syracuse’s passing yards with Malachi Nelson and without Malachi Nelson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 75.1 yards over with Malachi Nelson and 1.4 yards under without Malachi Nelson in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 303.0 and 265.0, a difference of 38.0. All 4 day games were without Malachi Nelson. Both nonconference games were without Malachi Nelson. All 4 first-half games were without Malachi Nelson.
Malachi Nelson, quarterback: 532 passing yards, 70 pass attempts and 42 completions in 3 games this season, 60% of Syracuse’s passing yards in those games.
2 games with Malachi Nelson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A +76.5 difference in passing yards over expected with Malachi Nelson vs without Malachi Nelson is about what you’d expect.
A +38.0 difference in passing yards with Malachi Nelson vs without Malachi Nelson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 275 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs California | L | 319 | 229.5 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 205 | 293.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 335 | 318.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 267 | 200.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 339 | 254.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 256 | 244.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 200 | 235.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.