Syracuse’s pass attempts with Malachi Nelson and without Malachi Nelson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 6.1 pass attempts over with Malachi Nelson and 1.8 pass attempts over without Malachi Nelson in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 39.5 and 37.0, a difference of 2.5. All 4 day games were without Malachi Nelson. Both nonconference games were without Malachi Nelson. All 4 first-half games were without Malachi Nelson.
Malachi Nelson, quarterback: 532 passing yards, 70 pass attempts and 42 completions in 3 games this season, 62% of Syracuse’s pass attempts in those games.
2 games with Malachi Nelson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +4.3 difference in pass attempts over expected with Malachi Nelson vs without Malachi Nelson is about what you’d expect.
A +2.5 difference in pass attempts with Malachi Nelson vs without Malachi Nelson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs California | L | 51 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 32 | 38.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 37 | 41.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 35 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 44 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 34 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 34 | 34.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.